Ilyas Kashmiri killed — again!

Ilyas Kashmiri is dead. Probably. Again.

Late on June 3, American drones fired missiles at a group of men drinking tea in an apple orchard in Ghwa Khwa, South Waziristan, a few miles from Wana. Nine militants were killed. On June 4, a fax arrived at Pakistani media offices from Kashmiri's own outfit, the 313 Brigade of Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami, confirming that "our emir and commander in chief, Mohammed Ilyas Kashmiri, along with other companions, was martyred in an American drone strike," and promising revenge against the United States.

If true, it is a major blow. Kashmiri, a former Pakistani Army commando turned jihadist, was among the most dangerous militant leaders operating in the region. Pakistani officials suspected him of masterminding the May 22 assault on the Mehran naval base in Karachi. He was linked to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2006 bombing of the US consulate in Karachi, and a plot against a Danish newspaper over which a US grand jury indicted him in 2010. Washington had designated him a global terrorist and put a $5 million bounty on his head. His death would come barely a month after American commandos killed Osama bin Laden near Islamabad.

The catch is the word "again." Kashmiri was reported killed in a drone strike in North Waziristan in September 2009, and then surfaced a month later to grant an interview to Asia Times, very much alive. That history is why Washington is cautious: a US intelligence official told CNN the agencies were "99 percent" certain this time, while conceding that the people who make such determinations were not ready to say so definitively.

Militant groups have never before faked a senior leader's death with a martyrdom announcement, which counts in favor of this one being real. But in the tribal areas, certainty is a luxury. Until a body is seen or DNA is tested, Ilyas Kashmiri occupies the strange status he seems to prefer: dead, until he proves otherwise.