Democrats Distancing from Obama

Why are Democrats stepping away?

As the 2012 election approached, Democratic congressional candidates in vulnerable districts faced an uncomfortable calculation: how far to distance themselves from a president whose approval ratings had slid toward the low 40s among the independent voters they needed, without alienating the base whose turnout they depended on.

The debt-ceiling debacle of August 2011 had left Obama politically weakened. The bruising fight with House Republicans ended with a deal that pleased almost no one, and the president's approval numbers reflected the damage. For Democrats in red-leaning states and swing districts, proximity to the White House suddenly looked like a liability rather than an asset.

How does the distancing work?

The traditional response to a weakened president is well-worn: incumbents run on local issues and biography while minimizing association with national party leadership. Some Democratic senators and House members in tough races began declining to campaign with the president, avoiding photographs with him, and speaking carefully — sometimes evasively — when asked about his policies. The spectacle of elected officials from Obama's own party treating association with him as toxic generated considerable commentary about party loyalty versus electoral arithmetic.

Is the logic defensible?

The political logic was clear even when the optics were poor. In states and districts where Obama's approval was soft, enthusiastic association with an unpopular president was not loyalty; it was electoral risk. Candidates who needed independents to survive could not afford to carry the weight of a national brand that was sinking in their backyards.

What did history say about it?

Midterm elections have historically punished the president's party, and 2010 had already demonstrated the dynamic — Democrats who ran from Obama lost, but Democrats who ran with him lost by more in hostile territory. The 2012 cycle would test the arithmetic again: distancing might not save a candidate in a wave, but association with a struggling president rarely did either. The calculation was cold, but it was not irrational.