US-Australia ties provoke China's ire

On November 16, 2011, standing beside Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that up to 2,500 American Marines would rotate through bases in northern Australia, starting with a company of 250 the following year. The next day, addressing Australia's parliament in Canberra, he declared the Asia-Pacific a top priority: reductions in U.S. defense spending, he said, "will not — I repeat, will not — come at the expense of the Asia Pacific."

The numbers were modest — the troops would be housed at Australian facilities in Darwin, and 2,500 Marines is a rounding error next to the roughly 150,000 U.S. personnel stationed abroad. But the symbolism was enormous. This was the opening move of what would be called the "pivot to Asia": a deliberate repositioning of American power toward the Pacific, widely read as a counterweight to China's rise.

Beijing was not amused. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said it "may not be quite appropriate to intensify and expand military alliances" and questioned whether it was "in the interest of countries within this region." China's state-run People's Daily went further, warning that "if Australia uses its military bases to help the US harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire."

Obama insisted the move was not about containing China. "The notion that we fear China is mistaken," he said. "We welcome a rising, peaceful China." Australia's defense establishment echoed the line that an American alliance and a Chinese economic partnership were not a zero-sum game. Few in Beijing believed it.

Indonesia watched nervously too — Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said he hoped the development would not "provoke a reaction and counter-reaction."

The episode captured the central tension of the coming decade: Washington rebalancing toward Asia, Beijing reading encirclement, and middle powers like Australia and Indonesia caught between their security guarantor and their biggest trading partner. The Marines arrived in Darwin on schedule in 2012. The argument never ended.