Mitt Romney now leads among women

A shift in polling data from April 2012 caught the attention of both campaigns in the presidential race: after weeks of trailing Barack Obama significantly among women voters — a gap that had widened during debates over contraception coverage and comments about women's health that had damaged Republican messaging — Mitt Romney had pulled to parity or slight lead in some surveys measuring women's support.

The movement was interpreted through several lenses. Republicans pointed to economic anxiety: with unemployment elevated and household finances strained, some analysts argued that women, like men, were prioritizing economic concerns over social issues when they weighed their choices. Obama's economic record — the recovery was proceeding, but slowly and unevenly — gave Romney an opening with voters whose primary concern was jobs and stability.

Democrats argued that the movement was temporary and likely to reverse. The party had made the "war on women" framing central to its strategy, pointing to Republican positions on reproductive rights, equal pay legislation, and social programs that disproportionately affected women. The Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which Obama had signed as one of his first acts in office, provided a ready contrast with Romney's studied ambiguity on the same topic.

The polling fluctuation illustrated a persistent tension in how political analysts and campaigns think about demographic groups. Women are not a monolithic bloc with a single set of priorities. College-educated suburban women, married women with children, single women, older women, women of different racial backgrounds — each group weighs political choices through different combinations of economic, social, and personal concerns.

The final result in November 2012 would show Obama winning women by eleven percentage points, the April polling notwithstanding.