Pessimistic people live longer — and healthier

Victory for the grumps

Older people blighted by pessimism and fear for the future may be more likely to live longer, healthier lives than those who see brighter days ahead, according to new research published by the American Psychological Association.

"Our findings revealed that being overly optimistic in predicting a better future was associated with a greater risk of disability and death within the following decade," said lead author Frieder R. Lang, PhD, of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany. "Pessimism about the future may encourage people to live more carefully, taking health and safety precautions."

The study

Lang and colleagues examined data collected from 1993 to 2003 for the national German Socio-Economic Panel, an annual survey of private households comprising approximately 40,000 people aged 18 to 96. Through mostly in-person interviews, respondents rated how satisfied they were with their lives and how satisfied they thought they would be in five years. Five years later, their predictions were compared with reality.

Among the oldest group (65 and above): 43 percent had underestimated their future life satisfaction, 25 percent had predicted accurately, and 32 percent had overestimated. Each increase in overestimating future satisfaction was related to a 9.5 percent increase in reporting disabilities and a 10 percent increased risk of death.

Older adults, it turned out, were the most realistic forecasters. The youngest group (18 to 39) had the sunniest outlook but the least accuracy; middle-aged adults made the most accurate predictions — but grew more pessimistic over time.

The caveats

Two findings were surprises even to the researchers: stable good health and income were associated with expecting a greater decline than poor health or low incomes — and higher income was related to a greater risk of disability. "We argue, though, that the outcomes of optimistic, accurate, or pessimistic forecasts may depend on age and available resources," Lang said.

The research does not mean gloom is medicine. Previous studies have found "unrealistic optimism" genuinely helps people cope with inevitable negative outcomes like terminal illness. What this study suggests is something narrower but still striking: when it comes to forecasting your own future, a darker — and more accurate — outlook may be the one that keeps you alive to enjoy it.

Archive summary, February 2013, based on the APA release for Lang et al., "Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood," Psychology and Aging.