COVID-19 Disease Progression: The Typical Timeline (March 2020)
The typical COVID-19 timeline as understood in March 2020: fever on day one, breathing difficulty around day five, possible ARDS by day eight.
The flatten-the-curve chart that circulated in March 2020, comparing an epidemic with and without protective measures. (Chart: Esther Kim and Carl T. Bergstrom, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
Based on the first two large Wuhan case series (The Lancet, JAMA), as reported in March 2020. Understanding has evolved since — this is the historical picture, not current medical guidance.
| Day | Typical course | |-----|---------------| | Day 1 | Fever, often with fatigue, muscle pain, and dry cough. A small minority had diarrhea or nausea 1–2 days before. | | Day 5 | Difficulty breathing (dyspnea), mostly in older patients or those with pre-existing conditions. | | Day 7 | Patients with dyspnea tended to be admitted to hospital; about 85% of patients began to improve. | | Day 8 | Severe cases could develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) — roughly 15% of cases, per the Chinese CDC. | | Day 10 | Worsening patients tended to enter intensive care; average hospital stay was about 10 days. | | Day 12 | Fever typically ended, per the first Wuhan study. |
This article is general historical information, not medical advice. Originally published March 2020.
Note: this timeline overlaps with our fuller account, "How COVID-19 Progressed: The March 2020 Picture."
Comments
Loading comments…