The US-Iran War: What It Means for Your Gas Bill

Ten days into the US-Israel military operation against Iran, Americans are feeling it at the pump.

US gas prices have surged roughly 20% since joint airstrikes on Iran began February 28, with the national average hitting $3.55 a gallon on March 10. The cause is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil moves. Analysts say prices are likely to stay elevated until the strait reopens.

Why are gas prices spiking?

Gas prices have surged roughly 20% since joint airstrikes launched on February 28, with the national average for regular gasoline hitting $3.55 a gallon as of March 10, up 61 cents from a month ago, according to Reuters. Just one month ago, only nine states averaged above $3 a gallon. Now it is 48.

The conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 15 million barrels of crude, about 20% of the world's oil, typically move through the strait every day, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy, and the threat of attacks has sharply curtailed tanker traffic, Reuters reports. Crude rose from around $67 a barrel before the strikes to nearly $97 by March 8, according to Al Jazeera, then broke $100 on Sunday, with Brent settling at $107.97.

Analysts warn it may not stop there. One senior Eurasia Group analyst has forecast $5 diesel within the week, reports PBS NewsHour. Economists warn grocery bills, heating costs, and air travel fares could follow.

48 states now average above $3 a gallon. A month ago, it was nine.

How is this reshaping American politics?

A Quinnipiac University poll found 53% of Americans oppose the military action. That number is likely to move as consumers connect foreign policy to their daily costs.

The White House has pushed back, predicting prices "will come down rapidly," per the Washington Times. Critics argue that optimism is premature while the Strait remains contested.

With midterm elections approaching, Axios reports the gas price surge is already reshaping battleground Senate races.

What would bring prices back down?

How long this lasts depends entirely on when, and whether, the Strait reopens. The conflict has also drawn in regional powers and upended global energy markets beyond oil: shipping, insurance premiums, and supply chains are all in flux.

Related: Oil Near $108: The Math India's Financial Media Isn't Running

Frequently asked questions

How much have US gas prices risen since the Iran war began? About 20%. The national average for regular gasoline hit $3.55 a gallon on March 10, up 61 cents from a month earlier, per Reuters.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much? About 20% of the world's oil, roughly 15 million barrels a day, normally passes through it, per Rystad Energy. When tankers stop moving, crude prices spike everywhere.

When will gas prices fall? The White House says "rapidly," but analysts say not until the strait reopens and Gulf exports resume. Nobody can date that yet.

Sources: Reuters (citing AAA/GasBuddy figures) · Quinnipiac University poll