Is Obama a One-Term President?

President Obama's April 2011 budget speech drew an immediate and cutting verdict from columnists: a more masterful politician than anyone imagined, and a less courageous leader. The question of the moment — raised as the 2012 election season took shape — was whether political shrewdness could substitute for leadership, and whether either would be enough for a second term.

The setup was pure strategy. Facing a growing debt crisis, Obama let Republicans go first in the budget wars. House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin obliged with a detailed plan cutting some $4 trillion over a decade — a bold proposal with obvious political vulnerabilities. On Wednesday, Obama pounced hard.

Karl Rove, writing in the Wall Street Journal, argued Republicans would benefit in the long run because Obama had presided over massive spending increases while dodging deficit specifics. Maybe. But in the short term, Obama framed the choice shrewdly: cut Medicare to protect tax cuts for the wealthy, or tax the wealthy to save Medicare?

When House Republicans moved to embrace Ryan's plan by formal vote, they made it the GOP's 2012 platform — a platform, critics noted, that was easy to demagogue and impossible for any nominee to run from. The political trap was elegant. The leadership question was whether the president had offered anything beyond the trap: on the hard questions — taxes on employer health benefits, entitlement specifics — he left the answers to someone else.

History answered the title's question: Obama won re-election in November 2012. The budget war's deeper questions — deficits, Medicare, the politics of specificity — were deferred, not resolved. They are still with us.